Chip prices fell, LED industry how to layout?

A few days ago, held in wide hair negotiable securities organization “in 2011 LED industry seminar” on, expert attending the meeting and business executives, national semiconductor lighting project research and development and industry association deputy secretary-general, Mr GengBo countries Yu Bin sea star electric director, deputy general manager, PhD, dry as photoelectric, chief financial officer, the board secretary Mr Ye Sunyi attended the meeting, and the 2011 LED industry has carried on the discussion. The main content of the meeting and opinion summarized below:

1. in the next few years LED industry will maintain rapid growth

In recent 10 years LED to improve every year, the ratio of the cost of the LED lights has gone beyond the traditional light source, lamps and lanterns of comprehensive cost is lower than incandescent lamp, halogen lamp and CFL tube light, will be equivalent to 2012 energy-saving lamps. 2015 LED products price may reduced to 1/5 of the 2010, when the general lighting market penetration rate reached 50%, in 2020 will account for more than 75% of the lighting market.

The current global industrial competition is the United States and Japan, Europe, South Korea, China and Taiwan. Now all countries in making strategic deployment, as Japan through the government subsidies to promote LED lighting, substantially is expected to replace the 2015 rate of 50%, replacement rate of 100% in 2020; South Korea in 2015 to ensure that 30% of the general lighting market.

China’s LED industry output value reached 120 billion yuan, more than 4000 enterprises, over the past five years the average growth rate of 35%, more than 40% in 2010. Relevant data statistics said guangdong LED output value reached 83.5 billion yuan. Industry output value is expected in the next few years the average growth rate of more than 35%. China is now in the key technology research and development has made remarkable achievements, especially in terms of packaging products have their own characteristics, applications also have a big breakthrough. Patent application, an application for a patent for the LED more than 28912, including encapsulation and application patent accounted for nearly 70%; National testing platform has six and three are planning.

2. the LED industry investment has a tendency to structural overheating

Traditional lighting industry output value reached 290 billion yuan, 2010, 2010, LED general lighting output value 18 billion yuan, a 140% increase over 2009, 2009 yuan, accounting for 21% of the LED application market scale, up 14% over 14% in 2009, including LED street light, tunnel light grew more than 100%. Union statistics domestic LED street lamp which has more than 1.6 million. LED market penetration is less than 1% in 2010, is expected to reach 30% in 2015. But strictly speaking, the general lighting market also is mainly the government, the real market has not yet started, but to replace traditional lighting is the trend of The Times.

Domestic investment scale of 20 billion, 2009, 2010 to 30 billion, the investment mainly concentrated in the industrial chain link of a hierarchical. The current domestic investment is very big. Portion of solar energy companies have also invested, poly (xin group invested $2.5 billion, 500 sets of imported MOCVD built LED base in suzhou.

Number of MOCVD equipment 2010 mainland plan new 09 for 50% of global supply MOCVD, three-year plan of new 1466 units, more than the sum total of 09 global MOCVD equipment, according to the plan, after three years epitaxial wafer production capacity will be 10 to 15 times that of 2009. Here it is important to note that the industry needs to come up, the above equipment number may still in short supply, but haven’t up the market at present, it is difficult these devices will be no surplus. Investment has a tendency to structural overheating, more than a third of the traditional lighting enterprise has entered into or plan to enter.

3. China LED industry both opportunities and challenges

Because of China on the basis of traditional lighting as well as the mainstream materials technology, power is likely to be LED industry in China. China at the national level of control to the market and the influence of the fluctuation is obvious.

The domestic LED industry opportunities and challenges coexist. Opportunities: 1, the traditional and emerging markets have huge business opportunities, 2 of the lighting industry, construction industry drive is relatively severe, 3, and the energy conservation and emissions reduction and sustainable development provides a good opportunity for the LED industry, 4, and the final policy vigorously promote the growth industry, last year in the semiconductor industry demonstration project bidding represents meaning is huge; Challenges: 1, the developed countries already have a demonstration application promotion policy, 2, developed countries have issued incandescent shut restrictions, such as high energy consumption of traditional lighting lamps and lanterns, China also need to keep up with and 3, also worry about industry to promote the government level affects the employment of traditional lighting industry too rapidly, but the transition needs to be carried out in accordance with the market rules, policies can only be driven around, 4, and the international giant strong into the downstream application requires us to speed up the integration, 5, and standard patent has become the focus of international competition, six, industry resources distribution is not gathered themselves together, and China is the local economy, to limit the development of the local is difficult; Upstream status tends to mid-range products, in talent disadvantage, 7, industry support and coordination is not enough. Technical support, development environment is not perfect enough. Investment level is low, serious product homogeneity, the standard and certification markets such as the improvement of the detection mechanism.

4. 2011 will be the first LED general lighting market

New wide prospect of market, new market using leds have higher economic value and environmental benefits is 10 years 8 hours a day (30000 hours) 2010-2015 forecast, photosynthetic efficiency reach 60 2010 lm/w, 2015 reach 100 lm/w, price at RMB 70, 2010, by 2015 could fall below $10 levels. Is expected in 2013 is the turning point costs down, that is to say, this point is LED large-scale promotion of inflection point.

LED lighting in the future market will be LED by technology and the rapid development of the price under the two-wheel driven. Alliance is expected, LED general lighting market in 2011, started in 2011-2012, LED lighting will be from the commercial, industrial, office and public area lighting gradually to household lighting.

Investment strategy:

1. aim at the potential enterprises: strong ability to system integration, enterprise with vertical integration ability at the same time; In some niche distinctive enterprise; It has advantage of brand channels of enterprises; EMC has the characteristics of business models.

2. in the key areas: according to the first public lighting, commercial lighting and home lighting the path of the orderly layout.

3. the timing of the investment: follow out incandescent roadmap, ten city wan light and huimin projects such as national policy (possible) in the latter half of 2011, seize the LED lighting to start the opportunity.

5. high-power LED packaging tends to comprehensive index

With the development trend of the LED device performance competition is no longer a single parameter, but tend to consider luminous efficacy and color rendering index, such as life, cost, comprehensive index. Direction of high-power LED packaging technology is a high current density, high heat resistance, high color rendering index, high integration and high luminous efficiency.

The next big chip, chip packaging, small chip high density multichip module packaging will be the trend.

6. MOCVD release will fuel industry consolidation

Current domestic production epitaxial wafer upstream MOCVD investment heat is very high, 2011 domestic installation of equipment to the arrival of the goods should be around 500 units, 2 to 3 quarter of this year, according to production capacity will be gradually released, may cause certain influence to domestic mid-range chip market, is expected to white light chip prices overall will decline by 20 to 30%.

Upstream chip threshold is very high technology industry, not only must have the stove, more important is to have a talent team, the current domestic talent in this area is very lack. Therefore, within the next two years industry will accelerate the consolidation, like ten years ago Taiwanese companies, the last may be 6 to 7 companies, some companies have not rule out the stove and cannot start, stove depreciation cost is very high, can’t produce products of high quality enterprise may face elimination.

7. recently LED lighting will be in the form of high power and small power coexist

At present LED lighting products at a slower speed, mainly relying on government project in promoting, but a good sign that emerging ways such as through EMC, through the introduction of banking, insurance and other financial institutions, LED industrial lighting, public lighting in rapid development. Other foreign incandescent bulbs into disable the countdown, short-term sell market is likely to grow up quickly.

Now LED lighting costs and prices are still too high, supply chain is still not fully improved, also there are many need breakthrough on technology link, also need to further improve the luminous efficiency. Because of cost, recently LED lighting products with high power and small power integrated coexist, but with high power devices cost greatly reduced, the high power LED products is the development trend.

8. developing independent patent is the basic way for long-term development

LED patent problem is one of the important factors of restricting the development of China’s LED industry, LED industry in China to have influence in the whole world, this is a matter of not around the past, must develop the independent patent. But the patent problem is not the core issue of chip level, or the epitaxial wafer, chip process of one’s capacity to process. At present the way to solve the problem of patent is main or around the patent tough area, pay royalties to obtain authorization, etc. At present the Japanese patent strictly, Europe and the United States, South Korea, Taiwan, mainland relatively loose.

Patent issue involves the chip materials, device structure, phosphor, secondary light distribution, shape design, such as multiple levels, the most important still is fluorescent powder and substrate materials. The phosphor patent main current in the chemical hands, they take is aluminate material, the current domestic silicate and nitrides are r&d, but still need to improve reliability and stability. Substrate material aspect, our country in vigorously promoting Si substrate material, the union delegate nanchang crystal can do capital of 60 million yuan investment in research and development, has great progress so far, once the success will be able to industrialization of the integrated circuit technology is applied to the LED chip, will greatly reduce the chip cost and future prospects are very broad.

Post time: Aug-10-2016